On Monday, the U.S. dollar, measured by the DXY index, exhibited relative stability, maintaining a fluctuation around the 103.45 mark with minor gains and losses. However, the upcoming week is anticipated to introduce heightened volatility due to significant events on the economic calendar. Notable events include the release of PCE data, ISM PMI figures, and a public address by Fed Chair Powell.
The consensus view among traders is that the FOMC has concluded its tightening campaign after the last quarter-point increase in July, attention has shifted to a potential easing cycle expected in 2024. To reinforce confidence in potential rate cuts, incoming data is crucial, demonstrating a decrease in price pressures and a deceleration in economic activity.
A more comprehensive assessment of the economic landscape awaits the release of the latest report on personal income and outlays by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday. Market expectations suggest a moderation in October's personal spending, forecasted to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, a significant slowdown compared to September's 0.7% increase. Additionally, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve's favoured inflation metric, is seen to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, resulting in an annual rate of 3.5%, down from the previous 3.7%.
US INCOMING DATA
High-impact events on the calendar, including the release of PCE data, ISM PMI, and a public speech by Fed Chair Powell.
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